POST
Post Holdings, Inc.
$86.28
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 46.6% below fair value
You pay
$86.28
Bear
$132.96
Fair
$161.44
Bull
$189.94
Bear
$132.96
+54.1%
$10.53 × 14x P/E
Fair
$161.44
+87.1%
$10.53 × 17x P/E
Bull
$189.94
+120.1%
$10.53 × 20x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
8.2x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $108.50 from 19 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $161.44 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 91%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $108.50 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 65% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples