POST
Post Holdings, Inc.
$76.58
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 18.2% below fair value
You pay
$76.58
Bear
$77.14
Fair
$93.67
Bull
$110.20
Bear
$77.14
+0.7%
$5.51 × 14x P/E
Fair
$93.67
+22.3%
$5.51 × 17x P/E
Bull
$110.20
+43.9%
$5.51 × 20x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
17.0x
5.51$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
13.9x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (19 analysts)
$112.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
16%
Summary
Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $5.51, the base-case value is $93.67 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples