POOL
Pool Corporation
$161.42
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 38.5% above fair value
You pay
$161.42
Bear
$87.43
Fair
$116.52
Bull
$142.93
Bear
$87.43
-45.8%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$116.52
-27.8%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$142.93
-11.5%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
7.0%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
22.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
10.4%
vs 7.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (21 analysts)
$211.57
Divergence from AlphaVal
45%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 7% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $116.52 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $211.57 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 45% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions