PNR
Pentair plc
$74.82
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 8.3% below fair value
You pay
$74.82
Bear
$65.31
Fair
$81.63
Bull
$97.96
Bear
$65.31
-12.7%
$4.53 × 12x P/E
Fair
$81.63
+9.1%
$4.53 × 15x P/E
Bull
$97.96
+30.9%
$4.53 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
16.5x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $113.56 from 41 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $81.63 per share.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $37.27 (below our primary estimate by 45%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $113.56 (from 41 analysts). Our estimate is 40% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples