PNR
Pentair plc
$52.47
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 11.7% below fair value
You pay
$52.47
Bear
$47.52
Fair
$59.40
Bull
$71.28
Bear
$47.52
-9.4%
$3.96 × 12x P/E
Fair
$59.40
+13.2%
$3.96 × 15x P/E
Bull
$71.28
+35.8%
$3.96 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
3.96$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
13.2x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (43 analysts)
$79.64
Divergence from AlphaVal
25%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.96, the base-case value is $59.40 per share. DDM cross-check: $39.91.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $39.91 (below our primary estimate by 33%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $79.64 (from 43 analysts). Our estimate is 25% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples