PM
Philip Morris International Inc.
$188.99
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 28.8% above fair value
You pay
$188.99
Bear
$120.81
Fair
$146.69
Bull
$172.59
Bear
$120.81
-36.1%
$7.83 × 14x P/E
Fair
$146.69
-22.4%
$7.83 × 17x P/E
Bull
$172.59
-8.7%
$7.83 × 20x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
24.1x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $187.60 from 25 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $146.69 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $187.60 (from 25 analysts). Our estimate is 29% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples