PM
Philip Morris International Inc.
$201.87
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 63.6% above fair value
You pay
$201.87
Bear
$101.64
Fair
$123.42
Bull
$145.20
Bear
$101.64
-49.7%
$7.26 × 14x P/E
Fair
$123.42
-38.9%
$7.26 × 17x P/E
Bull
$145.20
-28.1%
$7.26 × 20x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
17.0x
7.26$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
27.8x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (25 analysts)
$213.67
Divergence from AlphaVal
42%
Summary
Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $7.26, the base-case value is $123.42 per share. DDM cross-check: $143.74.
Warnings
The company pays out 83% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $213.67 (from 25 analysts). Our estimate is 42% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples