PLYM
Plymouth Industrial REIT, Inc.
$21.98
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 79.4% below fair value
You pay
$21.98
Bear
$87.58
Fair
$106.80
Bull
$126.02
Bear
$87.58
+298.4%
$5.02 FFO × 23x
Fair
$106.80
+385.9%
$5.02 FFO × 29x
Bull
$126.02
+473.3%
$5.02 FFO × 34x
Adjust Assumptions
28.6x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($5.02) × industrial P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
4.4x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (16 analysts)
$21.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
409%
Summary
At $5.02 FFO/share with a 29x industrial REIT multiple, the base-case value is $106.80 per share. Dividend yield: 4.4%. DDM cross-check: $20.65.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $20.65 (81% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $21.00 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 409% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify