PLTR
Palantir Technologies Inc.
$107.27
High-Growth Software
80%
Revenue × Terminal Margin DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 47.0% above fair value
You pay
$107.27
Bear
$35.70
Fair
$72.97
Bull
$101.89
Bear
$35.70
-66.7%
18% rev growth, 28% terminal margin
Fair
$72.97
-32.0%
30% rev growth, 37% terminal margin
Bull
$101.89
-5.0%
35% rev growth, 43% terminal margin
Key Value Driver
Revenue growth (30%) × margin expansion to 37%
Terminal Value % of EV
56%
Implied Market Multiple
53.5x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a discounted cash flow model based on revenue growth and long-run free cash flow margins. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $189.23 from 26 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $72.97 per share.
Warnings
Gross margin of 82% means each dollar of revenue is highly profitable. As the company grows, overhead costs should shrink as a share of revenue, boosting overall profits.
Wall Street's average price target is $189.23 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 82% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Current FCF misleads — the model values future margins, not today's cash
- SBC dilution is the hidden tax: 2-4% annual share growth compounds fast
- Revenue deceleration is inevitable — the question is when and how steep