PLTR
Palantir Technologies Inc.
$191.09
High-Growth Software
80%
Revenue × Terminal Margin DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 458.4% above fair value
You pay
$191.09
Bear
$16.74
Fair
$34.22
Bull
$47.78
Bear
$16.74
-91.2%
18% rev growth, 28% terminal margin
Fair
$34.22
-82.1%
30% rev growth, 37% terminal margin
Bull
$47.78
-75.0%
35% rev growth, 43% terminal margin
Adjust Assumptions
30.0%
37.0%
12.0%
Key Value Driver
Revenue growth (30%) × margin expansion to 37%
Terminal Value % of EV
56%
Implied Market Multiple
96.5x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (26 analysts)
$183.42
Divergence from AlphaVal
81%
Summary
Projecting 30% revenue growth with FCF margins expanding from 47% to 37% over 10 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case value is $34.22 per share.
Warnings
Gross margin of 82% means each dollar of revenue is highly profitable. As the company grows, overhead costs should shrink as a share of revenue, boosting overall profits.
Wall Street's average price target is $183.42 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 81% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Current FCF misleads — the model values future margins, not today's cash
- SBC dilution is the hidden tax: 2-4% annual share growth compounds fast
- Revenue deceleration is inevitable — the question is when and how steep