PLNT
Planet Fitness, Inc.
$50.92
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 43.0% below fair value
You pay
$50.92
Bear
$48.37
Fair
$89.37
Bull
$133.65
Bear
$48.37
-5.0%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$89.37
+75.5%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$133.65
+162.5%
18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
13.7%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (14% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
19.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
8.7%
vs 13.7% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (29 analysts)
$69.18
Divergence from AlphaVal
29%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 14% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $89.37 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $69.18 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 29% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions