PLNT
Planet Fitness, Inc.
$53.24
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 20.9% below fair value
You pay
$53.24
Bear
$31.76
Fair
$67.33
Bull
$106.70
Bear
$31.76
-40.4%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$67.33
+26.5%
15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$106.70
+100.4%
19% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (15% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
43%
Implied Market Multiple
27.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
13.1%
vs 14.7% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $76.65 from 29 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $67.33 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions