PLNT
Planet Fitness, Inc.
$51.74
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 43.8% below fair value
You pay
$51.74
Bear
$48.80
Fair
$92.07
Bull
$139.67
Bear
$48.80
-5.7%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$92.07
+77.9%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$139.67
+169.9%
19% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
14.5%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (14% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
20.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
9.2%
vs 14.5% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (29 analysts)
$72.97
Divergence from AlphaVal
26%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 14% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $92.07 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $72.97 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 26% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions