PLD
Prologis, Inc.
$133.14
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 51.4% below fair value
You pay
$133.14
Bear
$228.89
Fair
$274.13
Bull
$319.37
Bear
$228.89
+71.9%
$6.47 FFO × 23x
Fair
$274.13
+105.9%
$6.47 FFO × 29x
Bull
$319.37
+139.9%
$6.47 FFO × 34x
Adjust Assumptions
28.6x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($6.47) × industrial P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
20.6x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (42 analysts)
$155.15
Divergence from AlphaVal
77%
Summary
At $6.47 FFO/share with a 29x industrial REIT multiple, the base-case value is $274.13 per share. Dividend yield: 3.2%. DDM cross-check: $482.03.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $482.03 (76% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $155.15 (from 42 analysts). Our estimate is 77% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify