PKG
Packaging Corporation of America
$230.51
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 79.1% above fair value
You pay
$230.51
Bear
$102.96
Fair
$128.70
Bull
$154.44
Bear
$102.96
-55.3%
$8.58 × 12x P/E
Fair
$128.70
-44.2%
$8.58 × 15x P/E
Bull
$154.44
-33.0%
$8.58 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
8.58$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
26.9x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (26 analysts)
$272.43
Divergence from AlphaVal
53%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $8.58, the base-case value is $128.70 per share. DDM cross-check: $146.61.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $272.43 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 53% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples