PKE
Park Aerospace Corp.
$26.38
Platform & Compounding FCF
70%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 106.0% above fair value
You pay
$26.38
Bear
$10.68
Fair
$12.81
Bull
$14.86
Bear
$10.68
-59.5%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$12.81
-51.5%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$14.86
-43.7%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
9.4%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (9% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
52.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
21.9%
vs 9.4% base
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 9% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $12.81 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions