PI
Impinj, Inc.
$144.03
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 213.8% above fair value
You pay
$144.03
Bear
$0.00
Fair
$45.90
Bull
$185.13
Bear
$0.00
-100.0%
13% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$45.90
-68.1%
21% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$185.13
+28.5%
27% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (21% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
43%
Implied Market Multiple
1022.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
67.0%
vs 21.1% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $180.00 from 22 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $45.90 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $180.00 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 99% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions