PI
Impinj, Inc.
$149.76
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 68.0% above fair value
You pay
$149.76
Bear
$44.54
Fair
$89.12
Bull
$146.13
Bear
$44.54
-70.3%
13% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$89.12
-40.5%
21% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$146.13
-2.4%
27% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (21% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
43%
Implied Market Multiple
102.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $180.00 from 22 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $89.12 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $180.00 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 67% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions