PI
Impinj, Inc.
$190.78
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 3090.9% above fair value
You pay
$190.78
Bear
$0.94
Fair
$5.98
Bull
$12.43
Bear
$0.94
-99.5%
13% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$5.98
-96.9%
21% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$12.43
-93.5%
27% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
21.0%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (21% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
43%
Implied Market Multiple
758.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
62.4%
vs 21.1% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (22 analysts)
$178.83
Divergence from AlphaVal
97%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 21% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $5.98 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $178.83 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 97% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions