PHR
Phreesia, Inc.
$11.84
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 163.4% above fair value
You pay
$11.84
Bear
$4.25
Fair
$4.49
Bull
$4.91
Bear
$4.25
-64.1%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$4.49
-62.0%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$4.91
-58.5%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
3.7%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (4% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
33%
Implied Market Multiple
33.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
15.9%
vs 3.7% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (25 analysts)
$12.17
Divergence from AlphaVal
63%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 4% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $4.49 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 2925% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $12.17 (from 25 analysts). Our estimate is 63% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions