PHR
Phreesia, Inc.
$10.72
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 82.9% above fair value
You pay
$10.72
Bear
$5.52
Fair
$5.86
Bull
$6.43
Bear
$5.52
-48.5%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$5.86
-45.3%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$6.43
-40.0%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (4% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
33%
Implied Market Multiple
40.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
18.3%
vs 3.7% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $13.57 from 25 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $5.86 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 2925% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $13.57 (from 25 analysts). Our estimate is 76% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions