PHR
Phreesia, Inc.
$8.92
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 12.6% above fair value
You pay
$8.92
Bear
$7.51
Fair
$7.92
Bull
$8.67
Bear
$7.51
-15.8%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$7.92
-11.2%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$8.67
-2.8%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (4% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
33%
Implied Market Multiple
33.8x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $21.86 from 25 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $7.92 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 2925% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $21.86 (from 25 analysts). Our estimate is 85% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions