PHR
Phreesia, Inc.
$10.94
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 155.1% above fair value
You pay
$10.94
Bear
$4.23
Fair
$4.29
Bull
$4.63
Bear
$4.23
-61.3%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$4.29
-60.8%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$4.63
-57.7%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
3.2%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (3% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
33%
Implied Market Multiple
31.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
15.0%
vs 3.2% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (26 analysts)
$12.14
Divergence from AlphaVal
65%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 3% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $4.29 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 2925% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $12.14 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 65% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions