PHIN PHINIA Inc.
$74.80
Stable Earnings Power 80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 11.0% above fair value

You pay $74.80
Bear $58.98
Fair $67.40
Bull $75.84
Bear $58.98 -21.1% $3.95 × 14x P/E
Fair $67.40 -9.9% $3.95 × 16x P/E
Bull $75.84 +1.4% $3.95 × 18x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 19.0x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $84.50 from 5 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $67.40 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $84.50 (from 5 analysts). Our estimate is 25% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples