PHIN
PHINIA Inc.
$57.32
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 10.6% above fair value
You pay
$57.32
Bear
$45.36
Fair
$51.84
Bull
$58.32
Bear
$45.36
-20.9%
$3.24 × 14x P/E
Fair
$51.84
-9.6%
$3.24 × 16x P/E
Bull
$58.32
+1.7%
$3.24 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.0x
3.24$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
17.7x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (5 analysts)
$90.33
Divergence from AlphaVal
43%
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.24, the base-case value is $51.84 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $90.33 (from 5 analysts). Our estimate is 43% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples