PHIN
PHINIA Inc.
$74.80
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 11.0% above fair value
You pay
$74.80
Bear
$58.98
Fair
$67.40
Bull
$75.84
Bear
$58.98
-21.1%
$3.95 × 14x P/E
Fair
$67.40
-9.9%
$3.95 × 16x P/E
Bull
$75.84
+1.4%
$3.95 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
19.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $84.50 from 5 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $67.40 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $84.50 (from 5 analysts). Our estimate is 25% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples