PHIN
PHINIA Inc.
$80.14
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 16.0% above fair value
You pay
$80.14
Bear
$60.47
Fair
$69.10
Bull
$77.75
Bear
$60.47
-24.5%
$3.95 × 14x P/E
Fair
$69.10
-13.8%
$3.95 × 16x P/E
Bull
$77.75
-3.0%
$3.95 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
20.3x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $93.00 from 5 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $69.10 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $93.00 (from 5 analysts). Our estimate is 32% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples