PH
Parker-Hannifin Corporation
$953.44
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 68.6% above fair value
You pay
$953.44
Bear
$424.79
Fair
$565.53
Bull
$698.65
Bear
$424.79
-55.4%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$565.53
-40.7%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$698.65
-26.7%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
8.6%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (9% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
31.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
15.0%
vs 8.6% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (40 analysts)
$1165.44
Divergence from AlphaVal
51%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 9% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $565.53 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $1165.44 (from 40 analysts). Our estimate is 51% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions