PGNY
Progyny, Inc.
$31.75
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 12.6% above fair value
You pay
$31.75
Bear
$22.48
Fair
$28.20
Bull
$33.66
Bear
$22.48
-29.2%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$28.20
-11.2%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$33.66
+6.0%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (9% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
23.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
11.3%
vs 9.0% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $30.83 from 20 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $28.20 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 225% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions