PGNY
Progyny, Inc.
$27.35
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 12.9% below fair value
You pay
$27.35
Bear
$23.57
Fair
$31.41
Bull
$39.32
Bear
$23.57
-13.8%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$31.41
+14.8%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$39.32
+43.8%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
11.1%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (11% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
20.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
9.0%
vs 11.1% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (20 analysts)
$35.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
12%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 11% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $31.41 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 225% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions