PGNY
Progyny, Inc.
$28.13
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 12.3% below fair value
You pay
$28.13
Bear
$24.07
Fair
$32.06
Bull
$40.15
Bear
$24.07
-14.4%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$32.06
+14.0%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$40.15
+42.7%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
11.1%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (11% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
20.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
9.1%
vs 11.1% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (20 analysts)
$35.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
10%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 11% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $32.06 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 225% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions