PG
The Procter & Gamble Company
$157.10
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 39.6% above fair value
You pay
$157.10
Bear
$92.68
Fair
$112.54
Bull
$132.40
Bear
$92.68
-41.0%
$6.62 × 14x P/E
Fair
$112.54
-28.4%
$6.62 × 17x P/E
Bull
$132.40
-15.7%
$6.62 × 20x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
17.0x
6.62$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
23.7x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (53 analysts)
$160.13
Divergence from AlphaVal
30%
Summary
Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $6.62, the base-case value is $112.54 per share. DDM cross-check: $103.56.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $160.13 (from 53 analysts). Our estimate is 30% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples