PG
The Procter & Gamble Company
$144.44
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 5.5% above fair value
You pay
$144.44
Bear
$112.72
Fair
$136.87
Bull
$161.03
Bear
$112.72
-22.0%
$7.26 × 14x P/E
Fair
$136.87
-5.2%
$7.26 × 17x P/E
Bull
$161.03
+11.5%
$7.26 × 20x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
19.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $161.88 from 52 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $136.87 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples