PG
The Procter & Gamble Company
$148.66
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 9.2% above fair value
You pay
$148.66
Bear
$112.10
Fair
$136.13
Bull
$160.15
Bear
$112.10
-24.6%
$7.26 × 14x P/E
Fair
$136.13
-8.4%
$7.26 × 17x P/E
Bull
$160.15
+7.7%
$7.26 × 20x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
20.5x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $159.75 from 52 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $136.13 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples