PG The Procter & Gamble Company
$144.44
Stable Earnings Power 80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 5.5% above fair value

You pay $144.44
Bear $112.72
Fair $136.87
Bull $161.03
Bear $112.72 -22.0% $7.26 × 14x P/E
Fair $136.87 -5.2% $7.26 × 17x P/E
Bull $161.03 +11.5% $7.26 × 20x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 19.9x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $161.88 from 52 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $136.87 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples