PFGC
Performance Food Group Co
$115.53
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 104.4% above fair value
You pay
$115.53
Bear
$24.14
Fair
$56.53
Bull
$87.49
Bear
$24.14
-79.1%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$56.53
-51.1%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$87.49
-24.3%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (9% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
39.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
17.9%
vs 9.0% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $122.00 from 25 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $56.53 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $122.00 (from 25 analysts). Our estimate is 72% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions