PFGC
Performance Food Group Co
$93.94
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 0.4% above fair value
You pay
$93.94
Bear
$68.44
Fair
$93.55
Bull
$116.08
Bear
$68.44
-27.1%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$93.55
-0.4%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$116.08
+23.6%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
6.6%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
16.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
6.6%
vs 6.6% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (26 analysts)
$127.33
Divergence from AlphaVal
27%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 7% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $93.55 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $127.33 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 27% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions