PFGC
Performance Food Group Company
$93.63
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 68.1% above fair value
You pay
$93.63
Bear
$23.84
Fair
$55.71
Bull
$86.33
Bear
$23.84
-74.5%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$55.71
-40.5%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$86.33
-7.8%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (9% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
33.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $116.00 from 25 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $55.71 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $116.00 (from 25 analysts). Our estimate is 69% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions