PFGC
Performance Food Group Co
$95.63
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 1.3% above fair value
You pay
$95.63
Bear
$68.85
Fair
$94.38
Bull
$117.34
Bear
$68.85
-28.0%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$94.38
-1.3%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$117.34
+22.7%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
6.7%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
17.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
6.8%
vs 6.7% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (26 analysts)
$128.17
Divergence from AlphaVal
26%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 7% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $94.38 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $128.17 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 26% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions