PFE
Pfizer Inc.
$27.88
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 10.7% below fair value
You pay
$27.88
Bear
$26.74
Fair
$31.20
Bull
$35.66
Bear
$26.74
-4.1%
$2.23 × 12x P/E
Fair
$31.20
+11.9%
$2.23 × 14x P/E
Bull
$35.66
+27.9%
$2.23 × 16x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
14.0x
2.23$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (14x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
12.5x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (39 analysts)
$28.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
9%
Summary
Applying a 14x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.23, the base-case value is $31.20 per share. DDM cross-check: $27.23.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 64%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 126% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples