PEN
Penumbra, Inc.
$328.69
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 34.7% above fair value
You pay
$328.69
Bear
$118.46
Fair
$243.94
Bull
$415.96
Bear
$118.46
-64.0%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$243.94
-25.8%
24% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$415.96
+26.6%
31% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (24% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
49%
Implied Market Multiple
99.3x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $369.83 from 22 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $243.94 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 33% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $369.83 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 45% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions