PEN
Penumbra, Inc.
$317.52
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 97.8% above fair value
You pay
$317.52
Bear
$91.77
Fair
$160.52
Bull
$246.76
Bear
$91.77
-71.1%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$160.52
-49.4%
20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$246.76
-22.3%
26% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
19.9%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (20% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
46%
Implied Market Multiple
92.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
29.4%
vs 20.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (22 analysts)
$320.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
50%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 20% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $160.52 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 33% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $320.00 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 50% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions