PEN
Penumbra, Inc.
$317.39
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 59.6% above fair value
You pay
$317.39
Bear
$108.82
Fair
$198.84
Bull
$311.53
Bear
$108.82
-65.7%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$198.84
-37.4%
20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$311.53
-1.8%
26% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (20% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
46%
Implied Market Multiple
95.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
29.9%
vs 19.9% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $347.00 from 22 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $198.84 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 33% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $347.00 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 57% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions