PEBO
Peoples Bancorp Inc.
$37.33
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 34.2% below fair value
You pay
$37.33
Bear
$36.36
Fair
$56.77
Bull
$69.02
Bear
$36.36
-2.6%
ROTCE 9.8% → 1.61x TBV
Fair
$56.77
+52.1%
ROTCE 13.1% → 2.51x TBV
Bull
$69.02
+84.9%
ROTCE 15.1% → 3.05x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
13.1%
7.6%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (13.1%) vs. cost of equity (7.6%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.65x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (11 analysts)
$42.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
35%
Summary
With ROTCE of 13.1% vs. 7.6% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.51x on $22.63 tangible book, implying $56.77 per share. DDM cross-check: $31.20.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $31.20 (45% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $42.00 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 35% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly