PEBO
Peoples Bancorp Inc.
$38.02
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 29.1% below fair value
You pay
$38.02
Bear
$34.36
Fair
$53.66
Bull
$65.24
Bear
$34.36
-9.6%
ROTCE 9.8% → 1.62x TBV
Fair
$53.66
+41.1%
ROTCE 13.1% → 2.53x TBV
Bull
$65.24
+71.6%
ROTCE 15.1% → 3.08x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (13.1%) vs. cost of equity (7.6%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.68x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $39.00 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $53.66 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $32.97 (42% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $39.00 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 47% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly