PEBO
Peoples Bancorp Inc.
$39.99
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 32.4% below fair value
You pay
$39.99
Bear
$37.91
Fair
$59.19
Bull
$71.96
Bear
$37.91
-5.2%
ROTCE 9.8% → 1.68x TBV
Fair
$59.19
+48.0%
ROTCE 13.1% → 2.62x TBV
Bull
$71.96
+80.0%
ROTCE 15.1% → 3.18x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
13.1%
7.5%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (13.1%) vs. cost of equity (7.5%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.77x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (11 analysts)
$45.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
32%
Summary
With ROTCE of 13.1% vs. 7.5% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.62x on $22.63 tangible book, implying $59.19 per share. DDM cross-check: $32.87.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $32.87 (44% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $45.00 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 32% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly