PCRX
Pacira BioSciences, Inc.
$25.90
Platform & Compounding FCF
65%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 18.2% below fair value
You pay
$25.90
Bear
$27.12
Fair
$31.67
Bull
$35.81
Bear
$27.12
+4.7%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$31.67
+22.3%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$35.81
+38.3%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
4.8%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (5% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
34%
Implied Market Multiple
12.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
2.5%
vs 4.8% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (36 analysts)
$29.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
9%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 5% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $31.67 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 817% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions