AlphaMadera

PCH PotlatchDeltic Corporation

$41.73

Real Estate Investment Trust 85%

P/FFO × Specialty REIT Multiple

Mild · Conviction

Fair Value

Trading 3.0% below fair value

You pay $41.73

Bear $35.40

Fair $43.02

Bull $50.63

Bear $35.40 -15.2% $1.74 FFO × 22x

Fair $43.02 +3.1% $1.74 FFO × 27x

Bull $50.63 +21.3% $1.74 FFO × 32x

Adjust Assumptions

P/FFO Multiple

27.0x

FFO per Share

1.74$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.74) × specialty P/FFO multiple

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 23.9x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.

Average Target (13 analysts) $50.67

Divergence from AlphaVal 15%

Summary

At $1.74 FFO/share with a 27x specialty REIT multiple, the base-case value is $43.02 per share. Dividend yield: 4.3%. DDM cross-check: $33.55.

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.

Key Risks

P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify