PCH
PotlatchDeltic Corporation
$41.73
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Specialty REIT Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 6.3% below fair value
You pay
$41.73
Bear
$36.66
Fair
$44.55
Bull
$52.43
Bear
$36.66
-12.2%
$1.74 FFO × 22x
Fair
$44.55
+6.8%
$1.74 FFO × 27x
Bull
$52.43
+25.6%
$1.74 FFO × 32x
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($1.74) × specialty P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
23.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Specialty REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $50.67 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $44.55 per share.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify