PCG
PG&E Corporation
$13.13
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 30.5% below fair value
You pay
$13.13
Bear
$16.52
Fair
$18.88
Bull
$21.24
Bear
$16.52
+25.8%
$1.18 × 14x P/E
Fair
$18.88
+43.8%
$1.18 × 16x P/E
Bull
$21.24
+61.8%
$1.18 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.0x
1.18$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
11.1x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (30 analysts)
$18.33
Divergence from AlphaVal
3%
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.18, the base-case value is $18.88 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples