PBR
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras
$23.80
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 36.0% below fair value
You pay
$23.80
Bear
$20.27
Fair
$37.16
Bull
$57.56
Bear
$20.27
-14.8%
FCF $15956M × 12x
Fair
$37.16
+56.2%
FCF $18772M × 16x
Bull
$57.56
+141.8%
FCF $21588M × 20x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
16.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
11.4x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (22 analysts)
$22.33
Divergence from AlphaVal
66%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 16x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $37.16 per share. Range: $20.27 (bear) to $57.56 (bull).
Warnings
Debt per share ($9.44) is significant relative to the stock price. Even small changes in the debt figure meaningfully shift what each share is worth.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $22.33 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 66% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential