PBPB
Potbelly Corporation
$17.12
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 39.2% below fair value
You pay
$17.12
Bear
$23.58
Fair
$28.17
Bull
$32.75
Bear
$23.58
+37.7%
$1.31 × 18x P/E
Fair
$28.17
+64.5%
$1.31 × 22x P/E
Bull
$32.75
+91.3%
$1.31 × 25x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
21.5x
1.31$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
13.1x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (10 analysts)
$17.12
Divergence from AlphaVal
65%
Summary
Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.31, the base-case value is $28.17 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $17.12 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 65% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples