PAYS
Paysign, Inc.
$15.42
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 49.2% below fair value
You pay
$15.42
Bear
$18.45
Fair
$30.35
Bull
$44.14
Bear
$18.45
+19.7%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$30.35
+96.8%
17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$44.14
+186.2%
22% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
16.6%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (17% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
44%
Implied Market Multiple
18.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
7.5%
vs 16.6% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (8 analysts)
$15.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
102%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 17% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $30.35 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 56% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $15.00 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 102% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions