PAYS
PaySign, Inc.
$6.72
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 74.5% below fair value
You pay
$6.72
Bear
$16.01
Fair
$26.32
Bull
$38.27
Bear
$16.01
+138.2%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$26.32
+291.7%
17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$38.27
+469.5%
22% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (17% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
44%
Implied Market Multiple
7.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $9.00 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $26.32 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 56% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $9.00 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 241% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions