PAYP
PayPay Corporation
$19.11
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 71.5% below fair value
You pay
$19.11
Bear
$35.86
Fair
$67.16
Bull
$108.03
Bear
$35.86
+87.7%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$67.16
+251.4%
22% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$108.03
+465.3%
28% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (22% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
47%
Implied Market Multiple
13.7x
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 22% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $67.16 per share.
Warnings
Financial statements were converted from JPY into USD using USDJPY at 0.0063 USD per JPY.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions