PAYP
PayPay Corporation
$16.02
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 78.6% below fair value
You pay
$16.02
Bear
$45.91
Fair
$74.80
Bull
$107.74
Bear
$45.91
+186.6%
10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$74.80
+366.9%
16% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$107.74
+572.5%
21% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (16% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
39%
Implied Market Multiple
6.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-4.5%
vs 16.2% base
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 16% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $74.80 per share.
Warnings
Financial statements were converted from JPY into USD using USDJPY at 0.0061 USD per JPY.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions