PATK
Patrick Industries, Inc.
$82.66
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 15.7% below fair value
You pay
$82.66
Bear
$85.78
Fair
$98.05
Bull
$110.30
Bear
$85.78
+3.8%
$5.62 × 14x P/E
Fair
$98.05
+18.6%
$5.62 × 16x P/E
Bull
$110.30
+33.4%
$5.62 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
14.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $122.33 from 17 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $98.05 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 44%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Dividend-based valuation: $295.86 (above our primary estimate by 229%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $122.33 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 26% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples