PATK
Patrick Industries, Inc.
$90.87
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 16.7% below fair value
You pay
$90.87
Bear
$95.48
Fair
$109.12
Bull
$122.77
Bear
$95.48
+5.1%
$6.50 × 14x P/E
Fair
$109.12
+20.1%
$6.50 × 16x P/E
Bull
$122.77
+35.1%
$6.50 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
14.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $124.50 from 17 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $109.12 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 67%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Dividend-based valuation: $295.86 (above our primary estimate by 184%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples