PATK
Patrick Industries, Inc.
$63.46
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 39.0% below fair value
You pay
$63.46
Bear
$91.00
Fair
$104.00
Bull
$117.00
Bear
$91.00
+43.4%
$6.50 × 14x P/E
Fair
$104.00
+63.9%
$6.50 × 16x P/E
Bull
$117.00
+84.4%
$6.50 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.0x
6.5$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
9.8x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (17 analysts)
$113.38
Divergence from AlphaVal
8%
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $6.50, the base-case value is $104.00 per share. DDM cross-check: $300.68.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 67%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Dividend-based valuation: $300.68 (above our primary estimate by 189%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples