PARR
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc.
$70.92
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 16.8% above fair value
You pay
$70.92
Bear
$33.62
Fair
$60.69
Bull
$92.42
Bear
$33.62
-52.6%
FCF $261M × 10x
Fair
$60.69
-14.4%
FCF $296M × 13x
Bull
$92.42
+30.3%
FCF $332M × 16x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
15.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on free cash flow under different commodity price assumptions and a valuation multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $75.80 from 17 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $60.69 per share.
Warnings
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $75.80 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 27% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential