PARR
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc.
$81.32
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 12.8% above fair value
You pay
$81.32
Bear
$59.16
Fair
$72.07
Bull
$79.82
Bear
$59.16
-27.3%
FCF $403M × 10x
Fair
$72.07
-11.4%
FCF $360M × 13x
Bull
$79.82
-1.8%
FCF $317M × 16x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
13.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
14.3x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (17 analysts)
$79.80
Divergence from AlphaVal
10%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 13x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $72.07 per share. Range: $59.16 (bear) to $79.82 (bull).
Warnings
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential