PARR
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc.
$58.83
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 7.6% above fair value
You pay
$58.83
Bear
$28.78
Fair
$54.70
Bull
$85.07
Bear
$28.78
-51.1%
FCF $261M × 10x
Fair
$54.70
-7.0%
FCF $296M × 13x
Bull
$85.07
+44.6%
FCF $332M × 16x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
14.1x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on free cash flow under different commodity price assumptions and a valuation multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $61.60 from 17 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $54.70 per share.
Warnings
Debt per share ($24.46) is significant relative to the stock price. Even small changes in the debt figure meaningfully shift what each share is worth.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential