PAM
Pampa Energía S.A.
$80.68
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 56.5% below fair value
You pay
$80.68
Bear
$151.74
Fair
$185.46
Bull
$219.18
Bear
$151.74
+88.1%
$7.32 × 23x P/E
Fair
$185.46
+129.9%
$7.32 × 28x P/E
Bull
$219.18
+171.7%
$7.32 × 34x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (28x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
11.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $97.00 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $185.46 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $97.00 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 114% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples