PAM
Pampa Energía S.A.
$83.87
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 40.2% below fair value
You pay
$83.87
Bear
$122.65
Fair
$140.17
Bull
$157.69
Bear
$122.65
+46.2%
$7.32 × 18x P/E
Fair
$140.17
+67.1%
$7.32 × 21x P/E
Bull
$157.69
+88.0%
$7.32 × 23x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (21x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
11.5x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $97.00 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $140.17 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $97.00 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 56% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples