PAM Pampa Energía S.A.
$80.68
Stable Earnings Power 85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 56.5% below fair value

You pay $80.68
Bear $151.74
Fair $185.46
Bull $219.18
Bear $151.74 +88.1% $7.32 × 23x P/E
Fair $185.46 +129.9% $7.32 × 28x P/E
Bull $219.18 +171.7% $7.32 × 34x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (28x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 11.0x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $97.00 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $185.46 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $97.00 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 114% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples