PAM
Pampa Energía S.A.
$81.34
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 29.9% below fair value
You pay
$81.34
Bear
$101.50
Fair
$116.00
Bull
$130.50
Bear
$101.50
+24.8%
$7.25 × 14x P/E
Fair
$116.00
+42.6%
$7.25 × 16x P/E
Bull
$130.50
+60.4%
$7.25 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.0x
7.25$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
11.2x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (8 analysts)
$97.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
20%
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $7.25, the base-case value is $116.00 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples