PAHC
Phibro Animal Health Corporation
$33.26
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 39.5% above fair value
You pay
$33.26
Bear
$20.44
Fair
$23.84
Bull
$27.25
Bear
$20.44
-38.5%
$1.25 × 12x P/E
Fair
$23.84
-28.3%
$1.25 × 14x P/E
Bull
$27.25
-18.1%
$1.25 × 16x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (14x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
26.5x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $49.00 from 14 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $23.84 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $49.00 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 64% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples