PAHC
Phibro Animal Health Corporation
$39.03
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 7.6% below fair value
You pay
$39.03
Bear
$36.21
Fair
$42.25
Bull
$48.28
Bear
$36.21
-7.2%
$2.44 × 15x P/E
Fair
$42.25
+8.2%
$2.44 × 17x P/E
Bull
$48.28
+23.7%
$2.44 × 20x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
17.3x
2.44$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
16.0x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (14 analysts)
$28.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
51%
Summary
Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.44, the base-case value is $42.25 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $28.00 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 51% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples