PACS
PACS Group, Inc.
$48.76
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 2.8% below fair value
You pay
$48.76
Bear
$20.09
Fair
$50.17
Bull
$86.53
Bear
$20.09
-58.8%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$50.17
+2.9%
18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$86.53
+77.5%
24% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
18.4%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (18% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
45%
Implied Market Multiple
39.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
18.1%
vs 18.4% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (8 analysts)
$56.67
Divergence from AlphaVal
11%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 18% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $50.17 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions