PAC
Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico, S.A.B. de C.V.
$224.67
Platform & Compounding FCF
65%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 65.8% below fair value
You pay
$224.67
Bear
$298.80
Fair
$657.16
Bull
$1,151.08
Bear
$298.80
+33.0%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$657.16
+192.5%
24% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$1,151.08
+412.3%
31% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
24.1%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (24% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
49%
Implied Market Multiple
23.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
11.2%
vs 24.1% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (15 analysts)
$265.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
148%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 24% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $657.16 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $265.50 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 148% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from MXN into USD using USDMXN at 0.0539 USD per MXN.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions