PAC
Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico, S.A.B. de C.V.
$202.03
Platform & Compounding FCF
65%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 68.4% below fair value
You pay
$202.03
Bear
$303.16
Fair
$639.71
Bull
$1,088.78
Bear
$303.16
+50.1%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$639.71
+216.6%
23% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$1,088.78
+438.9%
29% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
22.6%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (23% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
48%
Implied Market Multiple
19.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
8.9%
vs 22.7% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (15 analysts)
$261.67
Divergence from AlphaVal
144%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 23% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $639.71 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $261.67 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 144% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from MXN into USD using USDMXN at 0.0589 USD per MXN.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions