PAC
Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico, S.A.B. de C.V.
$216.28
Platform & Compounding FCF
65%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 45.2% below fair value
You pay
$216.28
Bear
$181.65
Fair
$395.00
Bull
$679.70
Bear
$181.65
-16.0%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$395.00
+82.6%
23% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$679.70
+214.3%
29% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (23% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
48%
Implied Market Multiple
30.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
14.5%
vs 22.7% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $285.00 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $395.00 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $285.00 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 51% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from MXN into USD using USDMXN at 0.0574 USD per MXN.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions