P
Everpure, Inc.
$87.20
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 88.5% above fair value
You pay
$87.20
Bear
$30.30
Fair
$46.27
Bull
$65.05
Bear
$30.30
-65.3%
10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$46.27
-46.9%
17% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$65.05
-25.4%
23% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (17% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
108.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $86.63 from 45 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $46.27 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 256% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $86.63 (from 45 analysts). Our estimate is 67% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions