P
Everpure, Inc.
$126.03
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 331.3% above fair value
You pay
$126.03
Bear
$19.12
Fair
$29.22
Bull
$41.11
Bear
$19.12
-84.8%
10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$29.22
-76.8%
17% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$41.11
-67.4%
23% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
17.5%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (17% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
157.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
39.2%
vs 17.5% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (46 analysts)
$134.80
Divergence from AlphaVal
78%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 17% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $29.22 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 256% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $134.80 (from 46 analysts). Our estimate is 78% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions