P
Everpure, Inc.
$72.16
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 48.5% above fair value
You pay
$72.16
Bear
$31.80
Fair
$48.58
Bull
$68.30
Bear
$31.80
-55.9%
10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$48.58
-32.7%
17% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$68.30
-5.3%
23% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (17% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
89.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
31.2%
vs 17.5% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $94.38 from 46 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $48.58 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 256% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $94.38 (from 46 analysts). Our estimate is 69% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions