OXY
Occidental Petroleum Corporation
$60.67
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 103.1% above fair value
You pay
$60.67
Bear
$4.42
Fair
$29.87
Bull
$63.80
Bear
$4.42
-92.7%
FCF $3298M × 8x
Fair
$29.87
-50.8%
FCF $4711M × 11x
Bull
$63.80
+5.2%
FCF $6125M × 14x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
11.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
17.5x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (52 analysts)
$71.17
Divergence from AlphaVal
58%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 11x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $29.87 per share. Range: $4.42 (bear) to $63.80 (bull).
Warnings
Debt per share ($21.98) is significant relative to the stock price. Even small changes in the debt figure meaningfully shift what each share is worth.
If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -93%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $71.17 (from 52 analysts). Our estimate is 58% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential