OXM
Oxford Industries, Inc.
$40.43
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 107.1% above fair value
You pay
$40.43
Bear
$19.52
Fair
$19.52
Bull
$24.84
Bear
$19.52
-51.7%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$19.52
-51.7%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$24.84
-38.6%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (3% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
33%
Implied Market Multiple
20.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
9.1%
vs 3.0% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $41.33 from 21 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $19.52 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $41.33 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 70% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions