OXM
Oxford Industries, Inc.
$25.72
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 51.9% above fair value
You pay
$25.72
Bear
$16.93
Fair
$16.93
Bull
$20.58
Bear
$16.93
-34.2%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$16.93
-34.2%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$20.58
-20.0%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
3.0%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (3% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
33%
Implied Market Multiple
15.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
5.1%
vs 3.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (22 analysts)
$39.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
57%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 3% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $16.93 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $39.00 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 57% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
This stock is 48% below its 52-week high, with weak or declining earnings. That combination often signals real trouble, even though the valuation below is based on other fundamentals.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions