OVV
Ovintiv Inc.
$66.66
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 15.4% above fair value
You pay
$66.66
Bear
$16.54
Fair
$57.76
Bull
$112.73
Bear
$16.54
-75.2%
FCF $1478M × 8x
Fair
$57.76
-13.3%
FCF $2111M × 11x
Bull
$112.73
+69.1%
FCF $2745M × 14x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
11.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
12.2x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (27 analysts)
$75.75
Divergence from AlphaVal
24%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 11x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $57.76 per share. Range: $16.54 (bear) to $112.73 (bull).
Warnings
Debt per share ($26.21) is significant relative to the stock price. Even small changes in the debt figure meaningfully shift what each share is worth.
If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -75%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential