OUT Outfront Media Inc.
$33.60
Real Estate Investment Trust 85%
P/FFO × Specialty REIT Multiple
Moderate · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 25.6% below fair value

You pay $33.60
Bear $36.80
Fair $45.18
Bull $53.54
Bear $36.80 +9.5% $1.76 FFO × 22x
Fair $45.18 +34.5% $1.76 FFO × 27x
Bull $53.54 +59.3% $1.76 FFO × 32x

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.76) × specialty P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 19.1x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Specialty REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $34.00 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $45.18 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Wall Street's average price target is $34.00 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 41% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify