OUT Outfront Media Inc.
$32.48
Real Estate Investment Trust 85%
P/FFO × Specialty REIT Multiple
Moderate · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 29.2% below fair value

You pay $32.48
Bear $37.37
Fair $45.88
Bull $54.37
Bear $37.37 +15.1% $1.76 FFO × 22x
Fair $45.88 +41.2% $1.76 FFO × 27x
Bull $54.37 +67.4% $1.76 FFO × 32x

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.76) × specialty P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 18.4x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Specialty REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $37.50 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $45.88 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Wall Street's average price target is $37.50 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 28% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify