OUT
Outfront Media Inc.
$33.60
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Specialty REIT Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 25.6% below fair value
You pay
$33.60
Bear
$36.80
Fair
$45.18
Bull
$53.54
Bear
$36.80
+9.5%
$1.76 FFO × 22x
Fair
$45.18
+34.5%
$1.76 FFO × 27x
Bull
$53.54
+59.3%
$1.76 FFO × 32x
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($1.76) × specialty P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
19.1x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Specialty REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $34.00 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $45.18 per share.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Wall Street's average price target is $34.00 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 41% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify