OTF
Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp.
$9.01
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 80.3% below fair value
You pay
$9.01
Bear
$32.03
Fair
$45.76
Bull
$59.49
Bear
$32.03
+255.5%
ROTCE 6.7% → 1.36x TBV
Fair
$45.76
+407.9%
ROTCE 9.0% → 2.48x TBV
Bull
$59.49
+560.2%
ROTCE 10.3% → 3.15x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
9.0%
6.0%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (9.0%) vs. cost of equity (6.0%)
Implied Market Multiple
0.52x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (5 analysts)
$13.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
239%
Summary
With ROTCE of 9.0% vs. 6.0% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.48x on $17.38 tangible book, implying $45.76 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $13.50 (from 5 analysts). Our estimate is 239% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly