OTCM
OTC Markets Group Inc.
$55.20
Platform & Compounding FCF
65%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 41.7% below fair value
You pay
$55.20
Bear
$67.00
Fair
$94.67
Bull
$123.37
Bear
$67.00
+21.4%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$94.67
+71.5%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$123.37
+123.5%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
12.1%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (12% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
41%
Implied Market Multiple
14.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
4.5%
vs 12.1% base
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 12% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $94.67 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions