OSW
OneSpaWorld Holdings Ltd
$27.73
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 13.6% above fair value
You pay
$27.73
Bear
$13.80
Fair
$24.41
Bull
$37.13
Bear
$13.80
-50.3%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$24.41
-12.0%
18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$37.13
+33.9%
23% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (18% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
45%
Implied Market Multiple
47.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
20.5%
vs 18.1% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $30.67 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $24.41 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $30.67 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 26% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions