OSW
OneSpaWorld Holdings Ltd
$24.11
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 2.9% below fair value
You pay
$24.11
Bear
$14.10
Fair
$24.82
Bull
$37.69
Bear
$14.10
-41.5%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$24.82
+2.9%
18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$37.69
+56.3%
23% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
18.1%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (18% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
45%
Implied Market Multiple
38.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
17.7%
vs 18.1% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (11 analysts)
$31.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
20%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 18% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $24.82 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions