OSUR
OraSure Technologies, Inc.
$3.61
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 50.7% below fair value
You pay
$3.61
Bear
$5.86
Fair
$7.33
Bull
$8.79
Bear
$5.86
+62.2%
$0.36 × 18x P/E
Fair
$7.33
+103.0%
$0.36 × 22x P/E
Bull
$8.79
+143.5%
$0.36 × 27x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
9.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $4.00 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $7.33 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $4.00 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 104% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples