OSPN
OneSpan Inc.
$17.71
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 56.6% below fair value
You pay
$17.71
Bear
$34.20
Fair
$40.85
Bull
$47.50
Bear
$34.20
+93.1%
$1.90 × 18x P/E
Fair
$40.85
+130.7%
$1.90 × 22x P/E
Bull
$47.50
+168.2%
$1.90 × 25x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
21.5x
1.9$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
9.3x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (15 analysts)
$16.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
155%
Summary
Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.90, the base-case value is $40.85 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $16.00 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 155% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples