OSPN OneSpan Inc.
$13.12
Stable Earnings Power 40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 62.7% below fair value

You pay $13.12
Bear $29.42
Fair $35.13
Bull $40.86
Bear $29.42 +124.2% $1.94 × 18x P/E
Fair $35.13 +167.8% $1.94 × 22x P/E
Bull $40.86 +211.4% $1.94 × 25x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 6.8x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $15.50 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $35.13 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $15.50 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 169% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples