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OneSpan Inc.
$13.12
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 62.7% below fair value
You pay
$13.12
Bear
$29.42
Fair
$35.13
Bull
$40.86
Bear
$29.42
+124.2%
$1.94 × 18x P/E
Fair
$35.13
+167.8%
$1.94 × 22x P/E
Bull
$40.86
+211.4%
$1.94 × 25x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
6.8x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $15.50 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $35.13 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $15.50 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 169% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples