OSK
Oshkosh Corp
$132.13
Platform & Compounding FCF
70%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 33.6% below fair value
You pay
$132.13
Bear
$149.77
Fair
$198.96
Bull
$245.69
Bear
$149.77
+13.4%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$198.96
+50.6%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$245.69
+85.9%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
8.7%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (9% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
13.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
3.7%
vs 8.7% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (38 analysts)
$167.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
19%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 9% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $198.96 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions