OSK
Oshkosh Corporation
$128.51
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 18.6% below fair value
You pay
$128.51
Bear
$119.13
Fair
$157.92
Bull
$194.60
Bear
$119.13
-7.3%
5% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$157.92
+22.9%
9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$194.60
+51.4%
11% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (9% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
34%
Implied Market Multiple
14.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $168.50 from 37 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $157.92 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions