OSK
Oshkosh Corp
$146.34
Platform & Compounding FCF
70%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 13.7% below fair value
You pay
$146.34
Bear
$127.02
Fair
$169.48
Bull
$209.83
Bear
$127.02
-13.2%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$169.48
+15.8%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$209.83
+43.4%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (9% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
17.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
7.0%
vs 8.7% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $171.90 from 37 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $169.48 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions