OSIS
OSI Systems, Inc.
$222.10
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 195.1% above fair value
You pay
$222.10
Bear
$0.00
Fair
$75.25
Bull
$2.86
Bear
$0.00
-100.0%
5% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$75.25
-66.1%
8% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$2.86
-98.7%
10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (8% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
33%
Implied Market Multiple
131.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $301.00 from 18 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $75.25 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $301.00 (from 18 analysts). Our estimate is 100% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions