ORLY
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.
$86.45
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 74.0% above fair value
You pay
$86.45
Bear
$43.47
Fair
$49.68
Bull
$55.89
Bear
$43.47
-49.7%
$2.97 × 15x P/E
Fair
$49.68
-42.5%
$2.97 × 17x P/E
Bull
$55.89
-35.3%
$2.97 × 19x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.7x
2.97$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
29.1x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (47 analysts)
$106.09
Divergence from AlphaVal
53%
Summary
Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.97, the base-case value is $49.68 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $106.09 (from 47 analysts). Our estimate is 53% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples