ORGO
Organogenesis Holdings Inc.
$2.40
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 7.1% below fair value
You pay
$2.40
Bear
$2.21
Fair
$2.58
Bull
$2.95
Bear
$2.21
-8.0%
$0.16 × 14x P/E
Fair
$2.58
+7.7%
$0.16 × 16x P/E
Bull
$2.95
+22.9%
$0.16 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
15.4x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $3.00 from 5 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $2.58 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples