ORGO
Organogenesis Holdings Inc.
$2.66
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 19.8% below fair value
You pay
$2.66
Bear
$2.84
Fair
$3.32
Bull
$3.79
Bear
$2.84
+6.6%
$0.16 × 14x P/E
Fair
$3.32
+24.7%
$0.16 × 16x P/E
Bull
$3.79
+42.3%
$0.16 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
17.1x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $6.67 from 5 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $3.32 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $6.67 (from 5 analysts). Our estimate is 63% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples