ORCL
Oracle Corporation
$184.31
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 1.7% above fair value
You pay
$184.31
Bear
$151.78
Fair
$181.28
Bull
$210.79
Bear
$151.78
-17.7%
$5.83 × 20x P/E
Fair
$181.28
-1.6%
$5.83 × 24x P/E
Bull
$210.79
+14.4%
$5.83 × 28x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (24x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
31.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $253.50 from 86 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $181.28 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $253.50 (from 86 analysts). Our estimate is 44% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples