ORANY
Orange S.A.
$16.11
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 31.0% above fair value
You pay
$16.11
Bear
$9.84
Fair
$12.30
Bull
$14.76
Bear
$9.84
-38.9%
$0.82 × 12x P/E
Fair
$12.30
-23.7%
$0.82 × 15x P/E
Bull
$14.76
-8.4%
$0.82 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
0.82$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
19.6x
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.82, the base-case value is $12.30 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 421%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 795% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1232 USD per EUR.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples