ORANY
Orange S.A.
$18.63
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 49.2% above fair value
You pay
$18.63
Bear
$9.99
Fair
$12.49
Bull
$14.98
Bear
$9.99
-46.4%
$0.83 × 12x P/E
Fair
$12.49
-33.0%
$0.83 × 15x P/E
Bull
$14.98
-19.6%
$0.83 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
22.4x
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.83, the base-case value is $12.49 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 421%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 784% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1403 USD per EUR.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples