ORANY
Orange S.A.
$21.21
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 57.8% above fair value
You pay
$21.21
Bear
$10.75
Fair
$13.44
Bull
$16.13
Bear
$10.75
-49.3%
$0.90 × 12x P/E
Fair
$13.44
-36.6%
$0.90 × 15x P/E
Bull
$16.13
-24.0%
$0.90 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
23.7x
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.90, the base-case value is $13.44 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 450%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 706% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1635 USD per EUR.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples