ORA
Ormat Technologies, Inc.
$99.40
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 29.6% above fair value
You pay
$99.40
Bear
$62.74
Fair
$76.69
Bull
$90.62
Bear
$62.74
-36.9%
$2.55 × 18x P/E
Fair
$76.69
-22.8%
$2.55 × 22x P/E
Bull
$90.62
-8.8%
$2.55 × 26x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
39.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $138.33 from 17 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $76.69 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $138.33 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 59% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples