ORA
Ormat Technologies, Inc.
$96.65
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 117.5% above fair value
You pay
$96.65
Bear
$36.36
Fair
$44.44
Bull
$52.52
Bear
$36.36
-62.4%
$2.02 × 18x P/E
Fair
$44.44
-54.0%
$2.02 × 22x P/E
Bull
$52.52
-45.7%
$2.02 × 26x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
22.0x
2.02$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
47.8x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (19 analysts)
$132.14
Divergence from AlphaVal
66%
Summary
Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.02, the base-case value is $44.44 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $132.14 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 66% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples