ORA Ormat Technologies, Inc.
$133.46
Stable Earnings Power 85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 73.7% above fair value

You pay $133.46
Bear $62.85
Fair $76.82
Bull $90.78
Bear $62.85 -52.9% $2.55 × 18x P/E
Fair $76.82 -42.4% $2.55 × 22x P/E
Bull $90.78 -32.0% $2.55 × 26x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 52.3x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $138.86 from 17 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $76.82 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $138.86 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 60% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples