ORA
Ormat Technologies, Inc.
$87.09
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 96.0% above fair value
You pay
$87.09
Bear
$36.36
Fair
$44.44
Bull
$52.52
Bear
$36.36
-58.3%
$2.02 × 18x P/E
Fair
$44.44
-49.0%
$2.02 × 22x P/E
Bull
$52.52
-39.7%
$2.02 × 26x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
22.0x
2.02$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
43.1x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (19 analysts)
$124.71
Divergence from AlphaVal
64%
Summary
Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.02, the base-case value is $44.44 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $124.71 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 64% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples